Expected Value Calculator
A bet has positive expected value (+EV) when the true probability of winning is higher than the odds imply. Enter the odds and your estimated probability to find out.
The odds from your sportsbook
How likely do you think the outcome is?
What is expected value (EV)?
Expected value is the average amount you win or lose per bet if you placed it thousands of times. A positive EV (+EV) bet means you profit in the long run. A negative EV (-EV) bet means the sportsbook holds the edge.
The formula
EV = (probability × profit) − ((1 − probability) × stake)
Example: odds of +150 (decimal 2.50) with a true probability of 45%. Profit on a $100 bet if it wins = $150. EV = (0.45 × $150) − (0.55 × $100) = $67.50 − $55.00 = +$12.50 per bet.
How do I estimate the true probability?
- Pinnacle closing lines — Pinnacle's closing odds are widely regarded as the sharpest in the market. Convert them to implied probability for a reliable baseline.
- Your own model — if you build statistical models for NHL, CFL or NBA, use your model's output.
- Consensus — average the implied probabilities across 5+ sportsbooks to strip out individual book bias.
Why does this matter?
Every profitable bettor, without exception, bets +EV. The house edge exists because sportsbooks set odds at slightly lower implied probability than reality. Finding spots where they are wrong — even by 2-3% — is the entire game.
18+ only. Gambling can be addictive — play responsibly. GameSense (AGLC) · Addiction Helpline (Alberta Health Services) 1-866-332-2322 (24/7, free, confidential).